The honest reason "now is the best time" articles get written is usually because someone is trying to sell you something. This one's different — we'll walk through the four factors that have actually aligned in 2026, what could shift them, and where the maths is genuinely strongest.
Four favourable factors at once
- Panel prices at multi-year lows — Tier-1 modules are roughly 18–22% cheaper than their 2024 peak
- SEG export rates at all-time highs — the best fixed tariff is 15–16.5p/kWh, with agile tariffs hitting 20p+ at peak demand
- Grid retail prices stable in a 27–32p/kWh band for over 18 months — your savings rate is finally predictable
- 0% VAT on qualifying installs until 31 March 2027 — a guaranteed price increase on the calendar after that date
The closest the UK has been to this kind of alignment was 2018, before the Feed-in Tariff ended. The FiT itself paid more than today's SEG, but the underlying maths since then has been weaker than what's available right now.
Payback compared across years
For a typical 4kW + 10kWh install in southern England, household usage 3,500 kWh/year:
- 2018 (FiT era): ~£8,500 install, FiT + savings ≈ £750/yr → ~11-year payback
- 2022 (post-COVID peak): ~£12,500 install, SEG + savings ≈ £550/yr → ~22-year payback
- 2024: ~£12,000 install, SEG + savings ≈ £720/yr → ~17-year payback
- 2026: ~£10,500 install, SEG + savings ≈ £950/yr → ~11-year payback
The 2026 payback profile is in the same ballpark as the Feed-in Tariff era — without needing a closed-window subsidy to make the numbers work.
What could shift this
Three things to watch. First, VAT reverts to 5% on 1 April 2027 — that adds £400–£800 to the typical install. Second, if wholesale gas keeps dropping, retail electricity could fall too, which would lengthen payback (good for everyone, less good for the solar maths). Third, SEG rates could compress if more households export solar at the same time of day; the best protection against that is a battery and an agile-friendly tariff.
The honest verdict
2026 isn't a "now or never" moment, and any installer pitching it that way is exaggerating. It's a "now is just as good as it's likely to get for a while" moment. If you've been thinking about solar for 12 months and waiting for a sign, the maths is the sign.